arh777d
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(12/16/05 6:24 pm)
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POLITICS AND ECONOMY
Iraq’s parliamentary election, the first to be held under the new permanent constitution, provides the Shia majority cause for some serious soul searching. With the north sewn up in advance by the Kurdish coalition and the Sunni Arabs an unknown quantity, the election has shaped up as a race between the Shia secularist Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister, and the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), a list comprising leading Shia religious parties that captured the majority in the current parliament.
Mr Allawi’s campaigners say that his list, unlike the UIA, will be able to pull in substantial support in all parts of the country. He can expect substantial Sunni votes--guaranteed to be relevant, given newly introduced seat allocations for each province (the previous election treated the whole country as a single constituency). More importantly, numerous local Sunni lists that are taking their first plunge into political participation have indicated their willingness to link up under Mr Allawi’s secular umbrella afterwards. UIA supporters have dubbed him “Saddam without a moustache”, but an updated echo of the former dictator may be exactly what some of Mr Allawi’s supporters are looking for.
The UIA is not quite the same as last time. The current deputy prime minister, Ahmed Chalabi, a Shia secularist who threw in his lot with the clerics last time, is running on his own, seemingly aiming for the prime minister's post. Supporters of the radical Shia cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, who sometimes seems to rival Mr Chalabi in the diversity of his political friendships, have joined the main Shia list.
These changes could add to the surprises in post-election bargaining. The UIA shows little inclination to keep Ibrahim al-Jaafari on as prime minister, although many ordinary citizens may still regard him with some affection, showing more understanding than Mr Jaafari’s fellow politicians of the difficulties he faced in accomplishing anything during his short seven-and-a-half months in office. Adel Abdel-Mahdi, a former finance minister, is regarded as one of the strongest candidates to become prime minister in the event of the UIA capitalising on its core Shia support and emerging as the largest force in the new parliament.
Economic dividend
The election is important not only for the prospect of peacemaking and starting the process of reducing the US military presence in Iraq. The formation of a government with a full four-year mandate--even if this requires months of haggling--could help put a battered, distorted economy on a surer footing. International oil companies are waiting for political clarity, as well as for better security, before committing either their money or their personnel to Iraq’s rich southern fields.
The country’s reconstruction prospects have already taken an upturn since the adoption of the permanent constitution by popular referendum on October 15th. The Japanese government promised to lend US$3.5bn, in addition to the US$1.5bn it extended in loans and grants following the US-led invasion. Japan has also said it will forgive US$6bn worth of pre-invasion Iraqi debt. Then, at the end of November, Iraq’s parliament passed a 2006 budget that follows guidelines set by the IMF opening the way for further aid and long-term loans.
The 2006 budget also aims to boost oil exports for short-term funds, after the cash-strapped governments under Mr Allawi and Mr Jaafari both failed to carry out most of the reconstruction work planned in the 2005 budget. Much of the Iraqi government’s reconstruction budget was redirected to cover costly fuel imports, an ongoing necessity with refineries still not working properly, said Hussein al-Uzri, chairman of the Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI), a US-backed institution set up to replace the UN oil-for-food programme.
The prospect of fresh international financing arose just as US officials started talking about reaching the final stages of their government’s postwar reconstruction commitments. The US government has already paid out US$12bn of the US$21bn allocated for rebuilding Iraq.
www.noozz.com/Iraq/ViewAr...eId=125939
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